Six factors, and they are not equally weighted. Getting the order right is most of what separates an informed buyer from a hopeful one.
1. Condition
The largest variable in most cases, and the only one that cannot be recovered.
Pile depth is finite. Once the pile is worn to the foundation at the traffic lines, restoration returns appearance and not value. Moth damage, water staining and dry rot in the foundation are each capable of removing most of a rug's worth on their own.
Check by pressing a fingernail into the field at the centre and comparing with the traffic lines and edges. Then flex a corner — a sound foundation flexes and a dry-rotted one crackles.
2. Age and originality
Genuine antiques with intact pile and no reweaving carry a real premium. But age operates as a multiplier on quality, not independently of it.
The threshold is a hundred years, which in 2026 means pre-1926 — and a great deal of stock described as antique is later. Dating is done from yarn, dye, wear pattern and finishing rather than from paperwork: antique rugs.
3. Attribution
A rug confidently attributable to a known workshop or region can be worth several times an otherwise identical rug that cannot be placed.
This is where expertise earns its fee, and where the retail market is softest — a great many attributions are aspirational. Construction settles it independently of the label: rug authentication.
4. Weaving quality
Knot density, wool grade and evenness of weave. Meaningful within a comparable type and misleading across types — comparing a tribal rug's density to a city workshop's tells you nothing, because they were not attempting the same thing.
Wool grade matters more than density and is discussed less. The compression test in judging quality separates good wool from dead wool in about five seconds.
5. Materials
Hand-spun over machine-spun. Natural dye over synthetic. Wool foundation or silk foundation as origin signals. Real silk over viscose, which is a difference of an order of magnitude.
6. Size and colour
Commercial desirability, which moves with fashion rather than with quality.
Room-size 8×10 and 9×12 carry the most demand and the highest price per square foot; oversized rugs fall back. Currently fashionable palettes sell more easily than deep madder formality — which is precisely why traditional rugs are cheap right now.
What carries no weight
None of these survive to an appraisal
The provenance narrative — palace, family, unfinished by a dying weaver — unless documented, and it essentially never is. A certificate written by the selling dealer, which is a sales document. The original asking price a discount was calculated from. And "investment grade", which is not a category.
How the factors interact
They are not additive. Condition gates everything: a rug scoring highly on origin, age and weaving quality but worn through at the traffic lines is a decorative object, not a valuable one.
Conversely a rug scoring modestly across the board but in excellent original condition holds value better than most buyers expect.
That interaction is what an appraiser is actually weighing — see how rug appraisal works, and what the resulting numbers mean in insuring a rug.
Common questions
Does age alone make a rug valuable?
No. Age is a multiplier on quality rather than a substitute for it. An 1890 rug worn to the foundation is worth less than a 1930 rug with full pile and original ends, because condition cannot be recovered and age cannot compensate for its absence.
Does a signature increase a rug's value?
A genuine master signature does, materially — which is exactly why signatures are forged. Treat one as a claim to verify against construction and quality, not as evidence in itself.